In this article, we analyze gold vs carbon credits by reviewing current prices, historical performance, and future forecasts to identify which commodity offers the most compelling investment opportunity. We’ll also explain how to invest in commodities — especially in carbon credits.
What is the price of gold?
Gold has long been a go-to asset for investors seeking stability. Often viewed as a safe haven during times of market volatility, it has traditionally served as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. Generations of investors have turned to gold to preserve their wealth — especially during periods of economic uncertainty or currency devaluation.
As of today (early August 2025), the current price of gold is €2,888 per ounce, hovering near historic highs. While its resilience remains attractive, the limited upside at current levels is prompting many forward-thinking investors to look beyond traditional commodities in search of higher-growth, impact-driven alternatives like carbon credits.
Discover more: Top commodities to invest in today
How much are carbon credits worth?
Carbon credits are used to offset emissions by certifying reductions under eligible nature‑based or technical projects — such as reforestation, habitat restoration, or energy-efficiency projects. These assets operate within the voluntary carbon market, where private companies purchase credits beyond regulatory mandates and carbon pricing mechanisms.
DGB team member working at a tree nursery on the project site. Bulindi Agroforestry and Chimpanzee Conservation Project, DGB. Source: DGB
In 2023, the average price per carbon credit was $6.97. However, this figure can be misleading. The prevalence of lower-quality credits on the market significantly impacts the average — dragging it down and obscuring the real cost of high-integrity carbon offsets.
As of 2025, carbon offset prices continue to vary widely by project type. Here are the current average prices for nature-based carbon solutions:
REDD+ (avoiding deforestation): ~$7/tCO₂e
IFM (improved forest management): ~$16/tCO₂e
ARR projects (afforestation/reforestation): ~$24/tCO₂e
Gold vs carbon credits: Will carbon credits outperform gold?
Looking ahead, comparing gold vs carbon credits reveals two distinct future trajectories.
Gold climbed steadily from €1,725.45/oz in August 2020, and it took four steady years to surpass the €2,000 mark in March 2024. By August 2025, gold traded at €2,888 — a 167% total return over five years.
Gold is at peak valuation with modest upside — dependent on safe-haven demand, inflation dynamics, and central bank policies. Analysts remain cautious about further gains given current valuations.
By contrast, carbon credit investments are projected to benefit from strong tailwinds. The average carbon credit price has increased by 72.5% from 2021–2023, when it reached an average of $6.97. By 2030, prices are expected to range between $25 and $30, marking a 294% increase. This makes the case that carbon credits may offer superior appreciation compared to gold in the years ahead. Let’s take a closer look at each.
Discover more: Real estate vs. nature investment: why nature holds the edge
Will the gold price increase?
The global gold exchange market is expected to grow steadily. The global gold market size was valued at $291.68 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $457.91 billion by 2032, recording a CAGR of 5.8% during the forecast period, driven by demand in jewelry, digital gold products, and held reserves.
Asia Pacific gold market size forecast. Asia Pacific dominated the gold market with a market share of 66.25% in 2023. Source: Fortune Business Insights
While gold remains a classic safe-haven for wealth preservation, current valuations suggest it may be trading in uncharted territory.
As Brett Elliott, content director at APMEX — a major precious metals marketplace — notes:
“Gold is now at all‑time highs… nobody knows where the top is, or when reversal might come.”
That uncertainty is prompting investors to explore other assets like carbon credits — an asset class still in early‑stage growth.
Will carbon pricing increase?
Today, the voluntary carbon market is a $4 billion market. Major advisory firms like EY, McKinsey, BCG, and Morgan Stanley forecast the voluntary carbon market reaching $30–50 billion by 2030. More bullish projections from Goldman Sachs and Wood Mackenzie put it at $100 billion, while PwC expects a $30 billion market — still almost a ten‑fold increase from today’s market.
On a larger scale, Grand View Research projects that combined global carbon markets will grow from $695 billion in 2025 to over $4 trillion by 2030, at a CAGR of 39.4%, beating by far the previously mentioned gold market growth of 5.8%.
Global carbon market size forecast. Source: Grand View Research.
This projected growth is driven by increasing corporate demand, as companies face mounting pressure to meet their net-zero targets. However, supply is expected to lag behind demand, potentially driving prices even higher.
High-quality carbon credits are commanding a premium. In 2024, high-rated credits averaged $14.80/ton, compared to just $3.50/ton for lower-rated credits. This reflects a growing market preference for verifiable, impactful projects — especially nature-based credits, which saw a 42% rise in retirement volumes.
The market's shift is also evident in investment flows: In 2022, the voluntary carbon market attracted an estimated $1.3 billion. A major driver? Removal credits, such as afforestation and direct air capture, which in 2024 traded at prices 381% higher than traditional reduction credits, reflecting demand for long-term carbon solutions.
Carbon credit price forecast. Source: EY.
For investors and companies purchasing carbon credits now, this represents a first-mover advantage. After all, when investors buy a commodity, they’re betting on two things: scarcity and future demand — and carbon credits tick both boxes.
Discover more: Why carbon credit prices will rise
How to invest in carbon credits
Historically, investing in carbon credits was challenging due to:
- Limited access — most carbon registries don’t allow individual accounts
- High transaction scales — bulk purchases are dominated by corporations
- Restricted project access — early credits reserved for institutional buyers
- High entry cost — quality credits often require significant upfront capital
- Complex regulation — varying rules across markets demand specialist knowledge
- Lack of direct access — many projects are only available through private funds
Discover more: What companies buy carbon credits?
Invest in carbon credits with VanderStyn’s Green Carbon Fund
Recognizing these barriers, VanderStyn launched the Green Carbon Fund — a professionally managed carbon credit fund that gives accredited investors access to institutional-grade carbon credit projects.
The fund enables investors to support a curated portfolio of high-quality, verified projects through forward contracts — offering both financial upside and meaningful impact. By investing in early-stage credits and selling them as the market matures, the Green Carbon Fund offers:
- Fixed 8% annual cash flow, paid quarterly
- Estimated double-digit total returns over 6–8 years
- Diversified global portfolio of verified carbon projects
- Exposure to an evolving €50 billion+ carbon credit market
- $100K minimum investment threshold
Ready to invest in carbon credits?
If you’re deciding between gold vs carbon credits, consider this: gold protects wealth — but carbon credits may grow it.
When comparing real estate and carbon credits, it's important to consider how carbon credits can deliver a positive environmental impact. AI generated picture.
Speak to our Fund Manager to learn how VanderStyn’s Green Carbon Fund lets you confidently invest in carbon credits — before broader markets catch up.
